Poker odds & Probability

Poker Odds & Odds Learn how to estimate your odds

As a poker player, it's crucial to know the odds and ranking of poker hands in order to know where you stand when calculating your odds of winning. This guide is aimed at beginner to intermediate level players – that is, players with a basic understanding of poker, but who don't know how best to calculate odds to gauge the chances of success – and will give you everything you need to beat others while playing online poker.

How Odds Work

Poker odds are a fundamental concept in the game of poker and refer to the probability or probability of hitting a particular hand or winning a hand. Understanding poker odds is essential for making informed decisions while playing.

Understanding poker odds is crucial to making the right decisions when playing poker. It helps you determine whether to call, raise or fold, based on the pot odds and the odds of improving your hand. However, it's important to note that poker odds are just a tool, and other factors, such as player behavior and position at the table, can also influence your decisions.

Poker odds overview

If you want to know some of the odds and probabilities of common poker hands, take a look at the chart below to quickly find out what the odds are of making a particular hand.

Common Odds on Poker Hands

To help you become a better player, we've rounded up the odds of common poker hands and situations you're likely to see at the table. Visit our learn to play poker page to learn more about the most important tactics and terms when playing poker.

Open-ended straight draws (4.8:1)

An open-ended straight draw (OESD) is a straight draw that can be made at either end. For example, if you already have 6, 7, 8 and 9, it means that a 10 or 5 makes a straight. There are eight outs: the four fives and the four tens. However, you should be aware that these odds assume that there is no possible flush on the board and that you are drawing to the best hand, which may not be the case.

Flushdraw (4.1:1)

A four-flush (flushdraw) is a hand that is one card short of a full flush. If your closed cards (the ones you get at the beginning of a hand) are of the same suit and there are two more of that suit on the board, this is a good hand, as it is rare for another player to have two closed cards of the same suit. . However, you should be careful if you do not have the ace, as this lowers your chances of winning.

Inside straight (10.5:1)

Also known as a gutshot, an inside straight consists of four cards forming a straight with one of the middle three cards missing. For example, 8, 9, 10, J and Q make a straight - if you remove the 8 or Q, it becomes an openended straight. If you remove the 9, 10 or J, it becomes an inside straight/ gutshot. Again, these odds assume you are aiming to make the best possible hand, but unless you use both hole cards to make the street, that will not be the case.

One pair to two pair of trips (8.2:1)

A two pair is the seventh-best possible poker hand and is formed with two cards of the same value. For example, if you have J-T and you suspect that an opponent has a pair of aces, you have five outs to beat him: three tens and two jacks. However, this is based on the fact that your opponent does not have AJ or AT, which can be a dangerous assumption.

Overcards (6.7:1)

'Overcard' refers to hole cards that have a higher rank than all the other cards on the board. For example, if you have ace and queen and the flop is 10, 8 and 6, you have two overcards on the board. Depending on what you think your opponent has, you have six outs and odds of 6.7:1 - but this only applies if your assumption is correct.

Draws to a set (22:1)

A player is drawing when he has an incomplete hand and needs more cards to make the hand. It is often a very far-fetched draw and is even justified. In general, if you cannot accurately estimate your opponent's hands, when you draw to a set, you should always assume they have one that threatens your own hand and fold to avoid losing.

Odds of hole cards

Learn more about the probability of being dealt specific hole cards

Hand	Chance	Odds
AKs (or other specific suited cards)	0,302%	330.5 : 1
AA (or whatever pocket pair)	0,452%	220 : 1
AKs,KQs,QJs, or JTs (suited cards)	1,21%	81,9 : 1
AK (or another non-pair, incl suited)	1,21%	81,9 : 1
AA, KK, or QQ	1,36%	72,7 : 1
AA, KK, QQ or JJ	1,81%	54,25 : 1
Suited cards, Jacks or better	1,81%	54,25 : 1
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or TT	2,26%	43,2 : 1
Suited cards, 10s or better	3,02%	32,2 : 1
Suited connectors	3.92%	24,5 : 1
Connecting cards, 10s or better	4.83%	19,7 : 1
Any 2 with at least one Q+	4.98%	19,7 : 1
Any 2 with at least one J+	9.05%	10,1 : 1
Any 2 with at least one 10+	14,3%	5,98 : 1
Contiguous maps	15,7%	5,98 : 1
Any 2 with at least one 9+	20,8%	3,81 : 1
Not connected, not suited, with at least one 2-9	53,4%	0,873 : 1

Frequently Asked Questions Poker Odds

How to calculate your odds

To calculate the odds and your equity (that is, your chances of winning the pot), you must first know how many outs you have to make your hand. There are four cards of each rank and 13 of each suit in typical poker games. There are many different ways to make calculating odds easier, especially if you are a beginner, such as our poker charts.

What hands should I play preflop?

Deciding which hands to play and which to fold is crucial to strong poker strategy. When deciding which ones to play, you should ask yourself how good your hand is/can become against the type of hand your opponent is playing, assuming their hand is stronger than yours. The best hands to play preflop are big pocket pairs like AA, KK and QQ, followed by high suited cards like A-K.

What hands should I play?

Every poker hand has equity against other poker hands, and when deciding which one to play, you should always choose the hand that maximizes that equity, i.e. gives you the best chance of winning that hand. The only way to know which poker hands to play is to learn the odds and how they play against other hands. Check out our guide on poker hand ranking for more information.

What are the odds of a Royal Flush?

The odds of a royal flush can be calculated based on the number of royal flushes divided by the total number of poker hands. A royal flush can be formed in four ways (one way for each suit), meaning there is a chance of about 1 in 30,940 overall - or only 1 in 649,740 to make a royal flush with your first five cards.

What is the probability of a straight flush?

Flopping a straight flush is extremely unlikely, resulting in an odd of about 0.02% or less. Calculating the odds of a straight flush in general depends on the number of different combinations of three cards that produce a straight flush, so it is important to know what your "outs" are. In general, the odds of forming a straight flush are 1 in 37,260, or 0.0279%

What are the odds of AA vs. KK?

The probability of getting a specific pocket pair if you play against a single player, such as aces, is 220:1, while the probability of someone else getting pocket kings is considerably higher at 205:1. If you play against nine other opponents, the odds become about 21.8:1, or 1 in 22.8.

What are the odds of winning with pocket Aces?

The probability of getting pocket aces in a hand is 6/1326. If you are playing against nine players, the probability of winning with pocket aces is 31.36% - assuming all players stay to the end. Poker aces win 85% of the time against an opponent, although this varies depending on the other hands at the table and the number of opponents.

How often do you hit a set on the flop?

With a pocket pair you hit a set on the flop about 1 in 8.5 times, which corresponds to an odd of 7.5:1 or 12%. In general, you should flop a set 12% of the time or one in nine times you see a flop with your pair.

What are outs in poker?

An out is an unseen card that will improve your hand into one that is more likely to win if you hit it. Knowing how many outs you and your opponents have is an important part of poker strategy and is crucial for calculating poker odds.

What is pot equity?

Pot equity is your percentage chance of winning the pot and depends on the cards you have. For example, if your hand has a 70% chance of winning, you have 70% pot equity in the hand.

What are good odds?

Poker odds refer to the probability of an event occurring and allow you to calculate how much money you can make if your hand wins. Good odds mean a higher probability of success is calculated based on the equity of your hand. The higher the odds against you, the lower your chances of winning.

What are the odds of flopping a flushdraw?

The probability of flopping a flush when you have two cards of the same suit is 118/1, and the probability of flopping a flushdraw when you have two cards of the same suit is 8/1. You must proceed with caution here, since any player with a higher card of the same suit as your flush has slightly more than a 2:1 chance of hitting another card on the turn or river to beat you.

Which hands win the most in Texas Hold'em

Although aces are a winning hand 80% of the time, they are prone to losses against better hands. Two pairs will win the pot 31% of the time, while a simple pair will win the game 27% of the time. Three of a kind wins 12% of the hands and a straight wins on average 9% of the times.

Do you have to be good at math to play poker?

It helps, but there are several ways to be good at math when playing poker. You can educate yourself, use your intuition or take advantage of online tools such as calculators and charts. Many players who are good at poker are so because of their experience, which helps them determine when to call, fold or shove.

Poker Odds and Odds